Virginia Paid Family and Medical Leave Study (2024 Update)
This report presents an actuarial and policy analysis for a prospective Paid Family and Medical Leave
(PFML) program for the Commonwealth of Virginia, introduced during the 2024 General Assembly session. It examines the features of the Virginia legislation in comparison to other states that have adopted PFML and the potential effects of varying certain program design elements.
Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) programs provide temporary replacement income for workers
with a serious health condition, those caring for an ill family member, or those welcoming a new child. By 2024, 13 U.S. states and the District of Columbia have enacted PFML programs.
The report also includes a professional actuarial analysis that projects the costs needed for benefit payments and the direct and indirect costs of the operation and administration to maintain a sufficient cash balance to ensure program solvency over the 2026 to 2035 period. The potential short-run and long-run economic, social, and demographic effects on Virginia residents are examined through the lens of recent scholarly research on U.S. state programs. Lastly, the study uses a commercial economic impact model to examine the economic impacts of Virginia PFML legislation, considering expenditures, taxes, and possible secondary economic and demographic effects.
Weldon Cooper Center staff conducted these economic impact analyses of various PFML scenarios using REMI PI+ software. Ten scenarios were modeled, including the four actuarial study options and
additional scenarios exploring different payroll tax burdens and potential secondary economic and
demographic outcomes.
The study also reviews the academic empirical literature on the economic, social, and demographic
effects of PFML programs. The review focuses on studies conducted in the U.S., examining
outcomes such as leave utilization, maternal labor market attachment, infant and child health,
parental well-being, employer outcomes, and caretaker outcomes.