Cooper Center Releases Inaugural Economic Forecast for the Commonwealth
February 10, 2025—Today the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service released its inaugural economic forecast for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Slated for quarterly release, the forecast tracks Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050.
This initial report focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Details about professional, scientific and technical services are included as a “featured industry or sector,” which will vary from quarter to quarter.
Overall, Virginia’s long-term economic outlook remains positive. Key statewide findings include:
- At 2.4%, Virginia’s GDP will outpace national GDP growth (corrected)
- Statewide inflation will moderate, with a CPI rise of just 2.6%, lower than in recent years
- Employment growth in Virginia will slow, but
- Virginia’s unemployment rate will remain lower than the national average
Regular economic forecasts are especially important in periods of policy changes and economic shifts. Future quarterly forecasts will incorporate the policy changes happening now, in the first quarter of 2025.
“Models like these are essential for understanding broader trends in changing times,” said Cooper Center Executive Director Eric Scorsone. “We want everyone from the statehouse to the coffeehouse to understand Virginia’s economic trajectory from their local or regional standpoint to a national context.”
Created by a team of Cooper Center economists— including Scorsone, João Ferreira, Terry Rephann, and Matt Scheffel—the forecast was developed in collaboration with Michael L. Lahr, a distinguished Professor from Rutgers University with decades of experience in regional forecasting and sectorial analysis.
“We draw on thirty diverse data sources to tailor Virginia-specific estimates, incorporating over 300 variables and equations, and leveraging national data from Moody’s,” explained Ferreira. “This model is designed to evolve over time, incorporating new data sources and refining sector-specific insights to maintain its accuracy and relevance each quarter.”
The model does highlight certain industries that face challenges this year: information services, manufacturing, and mining and logging. On the other hand, professional and technical services—which includes jobs like consultants, lawyers and accountants —is growing, and is expected to represent 11% of the state’s workforce by year’s end. Virginia is second nationally in terms of the relative economic importance of this sector.
While the rate of Virginia’s job growth is expected to slow, the job market will continue growing, with a net gain of over 30,000 jobs predicted by year’s end. The largest contributors to job growth in addition to professional services will be in healthcare and retail.
To download the complete report, visit https://www.coopercenter.org/va-econ-forecast. For media inquiries, email arebhorn@virginia.edu.
